Player predictions are something you have to adore. We certainly do; we recently wrote about the best projected player for each team in 2024, the players who have improved the most, the projected stat leaders, and a few projections that will astound you.
We’re expanding that collection of content today with rookie projections.
Here’s a look at the top projected rookie by WAR at each position using FanGraphs’ Steamer projections.
C: 1.6 WAR, 98 wRC+, 11 HR, 76 G,.716 OPS, Austin Wells, Yankees
Last September, Wells made his Major League Baseball debut against none other than Justin Verlander. In his very first at-bat of the season, he collected a line-drive single. In his first taste of the Majors, the lefty hitter showed great pop, amassing nine extra-base hits, including four home runs, in his final 11 games, despite Steamer projecting him to only post a.410 slugging percentage. In the Minors, he slugged.476 during his career. Although he will have to share time with former Platinum Glove winner Jose Trevino, Wells should have a big season in the Bronx now that Kyle Higashioka is in San Diego.
Austin Wells’ go-ahead homer (3)
1B: Nolan Schanuel, Angels115 G, 12 HR, .770 OPS, 114 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Schanuel has always had a remarkable ability to get to base. During his brief stint in the Minors and his three seasons at Florida Atlantic University, he had an on-base percentage of.500 or higher. After just 22 games in the Angels system, they elevated the 2023 first-round Draft pick, and he continued to find ways to contribute. In each of his 29 games, Schanuel reached safely, walked more often than he struck out, and had an OBP of.402. This streak is currently tied for the third-longest in AL/NL history, trailing only Alvin Davis’s (47 games in 1984) and Truck Hannah’s (38 in 1918) records. With a projected OBP of.363, Schanuel is ranked seventh among first basemen, behind only Vinnie Pasquantino and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But with just four extra-base hits in 109 MLB at-bats, he is aware that he needs to increase his power this season.
Nolan Schanuel’s first career HR
2B: Colt Keith, Tigers118 G, 14 HR, .753 OPS, 106 WRC+, 1.8 WAR
Keith remained injury-free for the majority of 2023 and demonstrated his incredible power, despite struggling with ailments during his first two professional seasons. In 577 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed.306/.380/.552. He hit 27 home runs, one of which was projected to reach 473 feet by Statcast. He was fifth in total bases (280) and third among all Minor Leaguers in extra-base hits (68). Keith became just the seventh player with zero days of Major League service time to sign an extension when the Tigers offered him a six-year contract in January, demonstrating their extreme confidence in his ability to perform at the highest level. Keith’s forecast of 14 home runs and a.427 slugging percentage may be a little too modest if he can avoid the injury bug.
MiLB Awards: Best Single-Game
3B: Noelvi Marte, Reds118 G, 14 HR, .760 OPS, 101 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
Last season, Marte made his 35-game MLB debut, giving us a taste of what lies ahead for him. It included six thefts, a.316 average, three home runs, and an.822 OPS. On the penultimate day of the regular season, he had a four-hit, three-RBI game. He finished the season with the longest hitting streak of any Reds rookie since 1946, 16 games in a row. Marte has 60-grade power, much like Keith, but he also has an incredible sprint speed of 29.1 feet per second to go along with his strength. Marte’s anticipated batting average of.295 was partly attributed to those wheels and his excellent 91.3 average exit velocity. Among all hitters (minimum 50 balls in play), that was tied for 12th place. It is anticipated that he will bat.267 with 12 steals and 14 dingers.
SS: Jackson Holliday, Orioles125 G, 9 HR, .734 OPS, 108 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
When is Holliday going to appear on The Show? Perhaps it is Opening Day. Which role will he play? It may be second base or shortstop. But one thing is certain: Everyone wants to see the top prospect in the game play in the major leagues as soon as possible. As a 19-year-old last season, Holliday progressed through four levels of the Orioles system. MLB Pipeline reports that he batted 323 with a.941 OPS, securing his position as baseball’s top hitting prospect. In the Minor Leagues, Holliday has almost as many walks (126) as strikeouts (130), demonstrating a plate approach that is much beyond his years. Because of this, he has an on-base percentage of.442, and his projected OBP of.350 puts him among the top five at shortstop and the top ten at second base.
Jackson Holliday cage sessions
OF: Evan Carter, Rangers134 G, 16 HR, .758 OPS, 109 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
Once he was brought up last year, Carter—who many had overlooked going into the 2020 Draft—showed that he could do it all. Across 147 plate appearances, split between the regular season and the postseason for the World Series champions, he compiled a slash line of.303/.415/.574. During that time, the 21-year-old showed complete mastery over the strike zone with a 15% walk rate and a 16.1% chase rate. Carter, who went 6-for-6 in steal attempts in ’24, might use more running. He also added value in the outfield (+3 outs above average). With 16 home runs and 14 steals in 576 plate appearances, Carter’s projected slash line is.251/.348/.410, but he is capable of much more.
OF: Jung Hoo Lee, Giants134 G, 12 HR, .784 OPS, 115 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
What about another rookie who has amazing bat-to-ball abilities and a great hitting eye? In those areas, Lee might be the best of the group. In 3,947 plate appearances, the Giants’ new daily center fielder batted.340 with just 304 strikeouts. According to Steamer, Lee’s strikeout percentage would be 9.1%, which would be second only to Luis Arraez, the current NL batting champion (7%). Arraez, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Freddie Freeman would be the three NL hitters ahead of him with an average of.291. Although Lee had single-digit home runs in five of his seven seasons in Korea, there are doubts about how much extra-base power he will bring to the Majors. Nevertheless, his combination of defensive skill and pure hitting talent puts him in the top 15 outfielders in terms of WAR.
Jung Hoo Lee’s first batting practice with the Giants
OF: Jackson Chourio, Brewers130 G, 16 HR, .720 OPS, 93 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
In the last few months, Chourio, who is only 19 years old, has written himself into both on- and off-field record books. He became the first adolescent since Acuña in 2017 and the fifth since 1958 to record a 20-homer, 40-steal season in the Minor Leagues in September. With 44 stolen bases, a.805 OPS, and 22 dingers, the tool-loving teenager finished strong. The sport’s top prospect was rewarded by the Brewers a few months later with the largest contract ever given to a player without Major League experience—an eight-year, $82 million deal. The only rookie to record a 15–15 season in Milwaukee Brewers history is Ryan Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year. This summer, Chourio is expected to record 16 HRs and 16 SBs. His birthday isn’t until March 11th.
Brewers prospect Jackson Chourio is ‘something special’
Chourio’s three-hit game
DH: Wyatt Langford, Rangers113 G, 17 HR, .811 OPS, 122 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
Other outstanding prospects deserving of this slot are Jordan Lawlar of the D-backs and Junior Caminero of the Rays. We need to fill this role, but neither of them nor Langford is expected to spend a lot of time at DH right now. Our selection is a rather bullish projection for a top potential. Eloy Jiménez of the White Sox and Langford are tied for the 16th spot among outfielders in terms of projected wRC+. He is in between Bryan Reynolds and Jorge Soler with an OPS of.811. That’s a lot of confidence for someone who has played in just 200 Minor League plate appearances in his career, but Langford has proven he’s ready for the majors with his 10 home runs, 12 steals, and.360/.480/.677 slash line. On Opening Day, the Rangers may field two of baseball’s top six prospects in the same outfield: Carter and Langford.
Wyatt Langford’s two-homer game
SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers29 GS, 184 IP, 200 K, 3.98 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Yamamoto is one of the guys, rookie or not, who is receiving more attention than others this season. In Japan, he won three MVP awards in the Pacific League. The highest amount of guaranteed money in any MLB pitcher’s contract is found in his agreement. He also plays for a team that boasts four MVPs in the locker room. Although Yamamoto ranks 16th among starters in WAR and K-BB rate (19.5%), his projected ERA would be more than two runs higher than his career average in Nippon Professional Baseball (1.82). Along with 14 other pitchers, he is predicted to record 200 strikeouts.
Yamamoto on Spring Training
SP: Shota Imanaga, Cubs26 GS, 148 IP, 150 K, 3.84 ERA, 2.6 WAR
The Cubs had a strong connection to Yamamoto early in the winter, but they switched to the other highly sought-after Japanese arm that was available because of reports that his price tag was too high. You are undoubtedly already aware with what Imanaga brings to the mound if you watched the World Baseball Classic the previous year. Over the course of the competition, he struck out seven and gave up no walks in six innings. He also started for Team Japan in the illustrious final matchup with Team USA. Although the 30-year-old left-hander lacks Yamamoto’s power, he does have good control, as shown by his 4% walk rate in the previous NPB season. It is anticipated that he would lead the Cubs’ rotation in both K-BB rate (17.9%) and WHIP (1.21).
Cubs introduce Shōta Imanaga
SP: DL Hall, Brewers18 GS, 125 IP, 151 K, 3.63 ERA, 2.3 WAR
Despite having pitched for the Orioles for portions of the previous two seasons, Hall is still eligible as a rookie. The southpaw, who was a crucial component of the Corbin Burnes trade, ought to find a place in Milwaukee’s bullpen or rotation. It’s important to remember that in addition to his 18 starts, he is expected to make 24 appearances out of the pen. Hall can undoubtedly play at this level with his four-pitch arsenal, which is led by a fastball in the high 90s. In 33 Major League innings, he has 42 strikeouts. What’s more, Hall’s 6.2% walk rate from the previous season suggests better command. He is scheduled for a 10.9 K/9 rate on Steamer, which is sixth-best among starters.
DL Hall discusses being traded to the Brewers
RP: Yuki Matsui, Padres64 G, 64 IP, 80 K, 3.33 ERA, 0.7 WAR
This season, who will be the closer for the Padres? Robert Suarez and Matsui seem to be the best choices, and Steamer does give Suarez a significant advantage in save percentage (22 to 7). Matsui, though, is expected to lead the team in several other areas, such as opponents’ batting average (.213) and strikeout percentage (30%), and be the club’s most useful reliever. While Matsui spent the last three seasons in the NPB as a one-inning starter, he was a multi-inning relief earlier in his career. Over 152 innings over that time, there were 95 saves, 215 strikeouts, and a 1.42 ERA. Major League batters might find it difficult to handle Matsui’s special combination of size and stuff.