Offense

A catcher’s main responsibilities are to basically manage the pitching staff and offer excellent defense (more on that later). Anything more than league average offense from behind the plate would be considered a benefit by most clubs.

Stephenson struggled in the previous season, recording a career low.A solid 243/.317/.378 for an 85 wRC+. His difficulties stem from the predicament he found himself in at the plate. It did not go well for him as he was frequently batting with two strikes and in hitters counts.

Naturally, compared to zero strikes, your numbers will be substantially lower with two strikes. I want to concentrate on how, even for a newbie, every situation performed better in 2022 and 2021 than in 2023.

I believe that by being overly soft on pitches in the zone early in counts, Stephenson ended up in two strike counts far too frequently. He lacks the strength to be classified as a walk, strikeout, or home run type hitter.

Would the results be better if one was a little more aggressive early in the counts?

Stephenson makes good contact and hits line drives to all fields when he is playing at his best. I believe he can return to the path he was following prior to the previous season.

He did not chase out of the zone at a much higher percentage than throughout his career (24% against 23%). Zone contact was 83%, down from 91% and 85% in 2022 and 2021, respectively. His batted ball statistics were comparable to those from prior years, if not superior. That seems nice to me.

I think his best case scenario is still very much on the table since there hasn’t been a significant decline, and in fact, there has been a tiny improvement in several areas from the years he was successful.

Prior to the 2023 season, Stephenson claimed to be healthy, but I’ve always questioned if he was really at 100%. His 2022 season was cut short by a clavicle injury, thumb injury, and concussion.

a season where he amassed a 135 wRC+ through 50 games with a slash of.319/.372/.482. A crucial component of his development and a second season in the majors. Eugenio Suarez’s injury the next year shown the impact injuries can have on players, and I don’t want to rule out that possibility.

Remember that Stepheson had 605 plate appearances in the Major Leagues previous to 2023. With a strikeout percentage of 21.7% and a 120 wRC+, he slashed.296/.369/.454 (thanks to Bryce Spalding).

Prior to the accident, he was emerging as one of baseball’s top offensive catchers after a fantastic rookie season. Compared to terrible Tyler Stephenson, we have seen more excellent Tyler Stepheson.

Defense

No need to beat around the bush, Stephenson was awful behind the dish in 2023.

While it was never a strength, he was passable with room to grow. Last season was a step back across the board. Baseball Savant runs metrics that determine a catchers ability to frame pitches. Stephenson graded out as a -1 in 2021 and -2 in 2022.

Last season he dropped to a -9. Sure, framing might lose importance if the automatic strike zone enters the equation, but for 2024, framing matters.

The good news? You can improve framing in an offseason. It is something you can work on and improve at a higher success rate than many other aspects of the sport.

Just look at the top 10 in catcher framing runs from 2023 and how they started their career.

PLAYER2023 CFRFIRST THREE SEASONSPATRICK BAILEY16N/A, rookieAUSTIN HEDGES157, 0, 10JONAH HEIM140, 8, 12FRANCISCO ALVAREZ9N/A, RookieWILLIAM CONTRERAS70, -2, -3SEAN MURPHY7-1, 3, 8ALEJANDRO KIRK60, -1, 9VICTOR CARANTINI6-1, 0, 2KYLE HIGASHIOKA61, 2, 2JOSE TREVINO60, 0 , 8CFR – Catcher Framing Runs, sample size does vary with players

My point of this chart is simply to show variance and examples of improvements.

Tyler Stephenson is unlikely to become a top-10 framer behind the plate, but improvement, even drastic, has happened before. Take the Reds most recent gold glove catcher, Tucker Barnhart. He posted a 2, -4, -10, -18, then 2 through his first five seasons.

More than just framing is important. Blocking pitches in the dirt matters, especially with the amount of breaking balls catchers see. Stepheson graded out as a -2 in 2023, and improvement from his -4 in 2021. Essentially, this means two past balls plus wild pitches got past him that the system expected a catcher to stop.

Other areas of focus are the run game and calling a game. Stepheson was league average in controlling the run his first couple years and a -3 last season. As far as calling a game, we do not have numbers that show one way or another.

With so much going into the result of a pitch, I struggle to put too much fault on Stepheson. There were times when pitch selection and location seemed strange, but we don’t have the information, scouting report, or intel needed to draw a fair conclusion, in my opinion.

If you are sitting there thinking catchers defensive metrics are a bit wonky I’d probably agree with you. The trust ole eye test lines up pretty well with Stephenson’s metrics, however. Keep in mind, Stephenson was a positive defensive WAR player until last year. Another offseason of work can hopefully lead to some needed improvements.

2024 Outlook

I see 2023 as a down year and not a downward trend. Too much talent in his bat to be consistently below league average. Projection models are expecting a bounce back to around 95-97 wRC+, as well.

Young catchers with offensive upside and years of control are very hard to find. Look around the league and ask yourself how many are available? Danny Jansen, who’s blocked by Kirk and in the final year of arbitration, is the only possibility I can see. Moving off Stepheson would be a mistake and a short-sided decision and the Reds know that.

Another offseason removed from multiple injuries can only be good for Stepheson. He does not need to be a middle of the lineup bat, but get back to a plus offensive catcher, show improvement behind the plate, and be a value to this Reds team in 2024.